Quantitative Modeling and Simulation

Fourth Down — Sports Analytics & Predictive Modeling

Explore the numbers behind a starting lineup. Compare players, try roster changes, and evaluate forecasts across five seasons of NFL data.

Fourth Down — from numbers to possibilities.

Project Details

Python and SQL analysis of 23,246 NFL records, with ridge regression evaluated against three baselines on 7,847 player-week forecasts. The research covers 2022–2026; 2026 is a partial snapshot through Week 4. The interactive lineup lab uses a selected-player 2024 replay with exact seven-slot optimization. Reference data and outputs were stored in AWS S3, with a replicated dataset processed in Databricks using PySpark and Delta tables.

Explore Interactive Dashboard

Project Delivery Risk Monitor

A reproducible predictive analytics prototype that prioritizes project reviews using synthetic status data, with a model, rule-based baseline, and interactive dashboard.

Illustrated project timelines with connected teal milestones and an amber risk signal
Project Details

Python validation, feature engineering, logistic regression, and regenerated dashboard outputs. Evaluation uses a separate holdout; the portfolio view identifies training and held-out rows. Includes AWS S3 and Databricks integration code, not a claimed production deployment.

Explore Interactive Dashboard

Industrial Buyout Modeling

Independent investment research connecting financial statements, a five-year cash-flow model, acquisition assumptions, and an operating improvement plan.

Vintage financial calculator, green notebook, and brass pen on a walnut desk
Project Details

Explore sourced financial research, sensitivity analysis, capital structure, and modeled equity returns. A hypothetical acquisition case using public data; projected results are not realized investment returns.

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Engineering Models, Optimization, and Comparison of Algorithmic Trading

Independent research project modeling financial strategies with calculus-based signal generation and real-time performance benchmarking.

Skarre Tracking Signal Dashboard
Project Details

This project investigates whether structured, engineering-based techniques can outperform passive benchmarks in algorithmic trading.

Research Objectives:

  • Apply mathematical modeling and calculus to extract actionable structure from market data
  • Develop a signal generation system using slope and acceleration of price curves
  • Optimize entry/exit thresholds for dynamic market regimes
  • Benchmark performance against passive strategies like SPY and QQQ
Methodology:
  • Uses Savitzky–Golay filters to smooth price curves while preserving turning points
  • Computes first (slope) and second (curvature) derivatives to detect inflection trends
  • Applies threshold logic to trigger trades based on derivative magnitude and direction
  • Performs backtests with Sharpe ratio, drawdown, ROI, win rate, and trade count
  • Benchmarked against SPY buy-and-hold to assess relative edge
System Features:
  • Real-time ticker selection and signal overlay via Streamlit
  • Moving slope and acceleration visualizations
  • Heatmap-based parameter optimization with adjustable entry/exit zones
  • Walk-forward validation and fold-specific Sharpe analysis
  • Trade log download and performance history export

Launch Live Dashboard

Wind Turbine Impact Study: Monte Carlo Forecasting

Data-driven simulation assessing the impact of wind turbines on renewable energy capacity in the U.S. and Europe.

Wind Turbine Study Preview
Project Details

Built as part of the Data-Driven Decisions course, this project evaluates the variability and potential of wind energy using Monte Carlo simulation.

Study Goals:

  • Model uncertainty in wind turbine output across different regions
  • Compare U.S. renewable capacity to Germany, Denmark, and the UK
  • Project renewable potential under optimistic and policy-driven scenarios
  • Visualize distributions, outliers, and projected capacity curves
Methodology:
  • Generated thousands of wind output scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation in Python
  • Used numpy.random.normal to represent wind performance variability
  • Compared real-world vs. theoretical performance using histograms and overlaid mean curves
  • Incorporated region-specific assumptions about capacity, wind strength, and policy ambition
Outcome:
  • U.S. performance lags behind Europe due to underutilization and slower growth rate
  • Monte Carlo results quantify uncertainty and help guide future energy investment decisions
  • Supports policy discussions on renewables by grounding them in statistical simulation

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TradeHPC: High-Performance Rust Engine for Predictive Market Modeling

A modular trading engine written in Rust, simulating high-speed financial computation pipelines for backtesting and predictive modeling.

TradeHPC Engine Screenshot
Project Details

This project simulates the backbone of a high-frequency or signal-based trading system, using Rust for performance and system control.

Core Capabilities:

  • Models how a real-time engine ingests and processes synthetic market data
  • Performs intensive floating-point computation using array simulation logic
  • Prints dynamic output such as simulated Sharpe ratios and momentum scores
  • Exposes a clean modular architecture via main.rs, gpu.rs, and mod.rs
Design Approach:
  • Simulates compute-heavy tasks typical in quantitative research or order execution
  • Structured to be extensible — future GPU acceleration and real-time integration possible
  • Demonstrates strong command of systems-level performance techniques in Rust
Status: Early-stage simulation focused on architecture and testing infrastructure. GPU modules and live market data hooks are planned for future versions.

Project Link: Coming Soon